Guides
Forecasting guides
Forecasting new products without sales history: analogues, category rates and early reads
How to forecast a product launch with no history: borrow from similar products, use category rates, read the first weeks of sales properly, and size the first order around the risk.
· 6 min read
ForecastingSeasonal demand forecasting: Holt-Winters, seasonal profiles and the Q4 ramp
How to forecast seasonal products, when to use Holt-Winters versus a seasonal profile, and how to time Q4 orders when lead times are long — with a worked example.
· 7 min read
ForecastingForecasting slow and lumpy sellers: Croston, SBA and TSB explained simply
Products that sell occasionally break ordinary forecasting methods. Here's how Croston, SBA and TSB work, when to use each, and how to stock slow movers sensibly.
· 7 min read
ForecastingHow to measure forecast accuracy: MAPE pitfalls, WAPE, MASE and bias
Why MAPE misleads for inventory, and how WAPE, MASE and bias tell you whether a forecast is actually helping — with worked numbers for each.
· 7 min read
ForecastingDemand forecasting for Shopify merchants: a complete beginner's guide
What a demand forecast is, what data you need from Shopify, how to clean it, and how to turn a weekly forecast into a purchase order — with every number worked through.
· 7 min read